Arrogate: Superhorse or Enigma

Arrogate: Superhorse or Enigma

Joseph Di Rienzi

On June 2, 2020, there was distressing news that the champion racehorse Arrogate had died unexpectedly at the age of seven at Juddmonte Farms in Kentucky where he had been standing stud. The passing of such a prominent thoroughbred has brought forth much consternation over this loss to his owner Prince Khalid bin Abdullah and the breeding industry in that Arrogate was completing only his third season as a stallion. Many observers cited his outstanding record and their opinion of his greatness. Not to show any disrespect to a fallen hero, I will examine Arrogate’s racing career in detail, showing that it can be divided into three parts - early, middle and final. In each we will see a very different race animal which makes a critique of Arrogate’s overall ability challenging. He can be summed up, paraphrasing Winston Churchill, as “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma”.   

Foaled in 2013 at Clearsky Farms in Kentucky, Arrogate was a son of Unbridled’s Song from the mare Bubbler. He was a $560,000 yearling purchase that was sent to Bob Baffert to train because Juddmonte wanted to have a West Coast presence to its stable. The tall gray colt did not start as a juvenile, and, in his initial outing, he was a closing third in a 6 furlong maiden race at Los Alamitos Racecourse in early June 2016. Appreciating added distance, Arrogate broke his maiden at Santa Anita Park and then won two allowance races (at Santa Anita and then at Del Mar Racetrack) all at 8½ furlongs. In these victories, Arrogate showed ability without being especially dazzling.

Taking a bold leap, Bob Baffert sent the tall gray colt east to Saratoga Racetrack to contest the Travers Stakes in late August. In the thirteen strong field for “The Mid-Summer’s Derby” were Preakness Stakes winner Exaggerator, Belmont Stakes hero Creator, classic placed Gun Runner, Jim Dandy Stakes victor Laoban and another Baffert trainee in American Freedom. Arrogate was perceived the weaker half of the entry in that Rafael Bejarano who had ridden him in his three West Coast victories chose instead to hop aboard American Freedom. In his absence, Mike Smith was given the leg up on Arrogate.

There have been many memorable renewals of the Travers Stakes over its long and storied history. In some there was great drama in terms of the contests between rivals such as Jaipur and Ridan (in 1962), and Affirmed and Alydar (1978), or powerful victories such as Wajima (1975) and General Assembly (1979), but I daresay, no one was prepared for the performance they witnessed in 2016. On a fast Saratoga surface, Arrogate (at 11-1 odds) broke from the no. 1 post position and vied for the early lead with American Freedom and Laoban. Taking command around the clubhouse turn, Mike Smith gave the big gray a loose rein enabling him to set fast fractions. Any thought he would come back to the field was dispelled at the top of the stretch as Arrogate was full of run and drew out to a record 13½ lengths breaking the stakes and track record in the process. Finishing second was American Freedom, and third was Gun Runner another 1½ lengths further back. Creator was far behind in seventh place, and Exaggerator finished eleventh.

Arrogate’s victory was so beyond anything previously shown in his brief career that observers did not know if he would prove to be a one race wonder or the next racing superstar. After this other worldly effort, Baffert chose to bring his trainee to the Breeders’ Cup Classic held in November at Santa Anita Park on workouts alone. 

The Classic had a nine horse field headed by the fan favorite California Chrome who was trying to complete a perfect season with Arrogate considered his main adversary. Other entries included major stakes performers Frosted, Hoppertunity, Effinex and Keen Ice. At post time, California Chrome was the 9-10 favorite, but Arrogate, at 8-5 odds, was installed the strong second choice.

After the break, Victor Espinoza sent “Chrome” to the front followed by Melatonin. Arrogate, starting from the no. 9 post, was not urged forward as he was in the Travers by Mike Smith but took a rating position in third place a couple of lengths behind the leader. The first three positions were unchanged down the backstretch as California Chrome was running comfortably on the lead. Around the far turn, Smith angled Arrogate inside of Melatonin as he took aim at California Chrome. Down the stretch, California Chrome continued to stride out purposefully, and although Arrogate was under a drive on the outside, it appeared he was not gaining. That changed just before the finish when the big son of Unbridled’s Song leveled out as only the really good horses do and thrusted himself forward to pass Chrome for an astonishing ½ length victory. The magnitude of the performance of the top two finishers was exemplified in that Keen Ice checked in 10¾ lengths further back in third place.

For Prince Khaled who has had so many top class runners in Europe and turf champions in the U. S., this Classic victory ranks up with his stable’s 2003 Belmont Stakes victory of Empire Maker. Subsequently, Arrogate was voted the Eclipse Champion Male Three-Year-Old with California Chrome the Older Dirt Male Champion and (despite losing the Classic) Horse of the Year.

In addition to serving as a fitting finale to the year’s racing, the Breeders’ Cup Classic was now also positioned to be a lead in to a newly inaugurated race, the $12 million Pegasus World Cup run the following January at 9 furlongs at Gulfstream Park. The purse money insured it would supplant the Classic as the richest race in North America. The 2017 Pegasus succeeded in its first year of attracting the two best horses in training from 2016 – California Chrome and Arrogate. It was hoped they would duplicate their dramatic stretch duel in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Despite California Chrome’s 2016 Horse of the Year award, Arrogate was installed the odds-on favorite. Breaking from the inside post, Mike Smith hustled Arrogate to gain an inside position just behind the leaders, while Victor Espinoza was forced to go wide around the clubhouse turn, a consequence of breaking from the far outside. Down the backstretch, Arrogate and California Chrome were racing in third and fourth place, respectively, their riders eyeing each other. The anticipation of another stretch duel evaporated when Smith asked Arrogate to go after the leaders, and Espinoza was unable to get Chrome to match strides with his rival. Midway around the final turn, Arrogate seized the lead as Chrome faltered. The last part of the race was a procession as the tall gray thundered clear, winning by 4¾ lengths, setting a new track record. California Chrome, obviously past his peak, tired to be ninth in his final career start.

Arrogate winning the 2017 Pegasus World Cup
(Eclipse Sportswire)

Next for Arrogate, who now was receiving accolades as the best horse in ages, was the Dubai World Cup  in late March. In the 1¼ mile race, he was facing Gun Runner who was turning into a formidable racehorse himself. The chestnut son of Candy Ride had won the Clark Handicap at Churchill Downs, in late November 2016, leading all the way for a 2¾ length victory. After being denied entry into the Pegasus World Cup, the Steve Asmussen trainee tuned up for the Dubai World Cup with a powerful 5¾ length victory in the Razorback Handicap at Oaklawn Park.

On a rare muddy surface, a field of fourteen were sent on their way in the Dubai World Cup. Much was made of Arrogate’s beginning in this race. He did break slowly and then was bumped so that Mike Smith had to take him back and settle the big colt in last place. However, Arrogate never lost contact with the field, and down the backstretch, Smith was able to place him in the pack waiting for the opportunity to unleash his run. That came heading for the final turn as Gun Runner had forged to the front. Using his giant strides, Arrogate quickly closed the gap in the stretch and drew clear to win, almost comfortably by 2½ lengths. Gun Runner in a good, but overshadowed effort, easily held second.

Now hailed as a 21^st century Man o’ War, there seemed no challengers to Arrogate’s supremacy. Since August 2016, he had, in the Travers, Breeders’ Cup Classic, Pegasus World Cup, and the Dubai World Cup, put together a string of performances that were comparable to the best of any other thoroughbred’s achievements. If Arrogate’s connections had decided to retire him after his Dubai race, he would rank near the top of all time U. S. champions. However, it was decided to continue racing the colt and set sights on a repeat try in the Breeder’s Cup Classic, run for the first time at Del Mar. It was the sporting thing to do, but, as we will see, it will sully his legacy. 

Arrogate made his first start after the Dubai World Cup in the San Diego Handicap in late July. With the Breeders’ Cup scheduled at Del Mar, his remaining races – the San Diego, Pacific Classic and Breeders’ Cup Classic would all be at the seaside track. Favored at 1-20 in the five horse field, the son of Unbridled’s Song (carrying top weight of 126 lb.) shocked everyone with a listless performance finishing fourth after trailing early, beaten over 15 lengths. The San Diego victor, Accelerate carrying 117 lb., who at the time was a consistent, if not top tier racehorse, led all the way for an 8½ length victory. (This was the biggest upset at Del Mar since Dare and Go stopped Cigar’s 16 race win streak in the 1996 Pacific Classic. It also brought to mind that Silver Charm, another Baffert trained Dubai World Cup victor, finished a distant fifth in the 1998 San Diego Handicap.)

After some soul searching, Arrogate’s connections concluded he was not quite fit for the San Diego as they had been too tender with him since his race in Dubai. In the Pacific Classic, under equal weight conditions, Arrogate faced Accelerate again, but there another Baffert trained runner, Collected, who was coming into the race extremely sharp. The son of City Zip started 2017 with three impressive stakes victories in California. Arrogate was still the odds-on favorite with Collected and Accelerate almost co-second choices in the seven horse field. At the start, Collected assumed the lead, followed by Accelerate and Arrogate. The pace was comfortable as Collected ran down the backstretch tracked by Accelerate with Arrogate a couple of lengths back in third. Around the far turn, Accelerate made a challenge for the lead as Mike Smith tried to rouse Arrogate. In the stretch, Collected pulled away from Accelerate, but Arrogate was able to mount a belated challenge that failed by a ½ length at the wire. Accelerate held third place, some 3¾ lengths back.

With a 1-2 finish, you would think Bob Baffert would be overjoyed. However, Arrogate had been in such high esteem, that even with the strong effort he put in the Pacific Classic, it was considered a disappointment. A theory began to be posed that the son of Unbridled’s Song did not take to the Del Mar surface. It was pointed that prior to last year’s Travers Stakes, he did win an allowance race at Del Mar, but it was, by Arrogate’s standards, a workmanlike effort. In the aftermath, Baffert resolved to press on to the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but he made sure his “A” horse would be joined by Collected.

While Arrogate was struggling to re-capture his best form, Gun Runner, whom he easily dispatched in the Dubai World Cup, was becoming a racing machine. The sculpted son of Candy Ride ran in three 9 furlong major stakes after his return to the U. S. and pulverized his fields in the Stephen Foster Handicap, the Whitney and the Woodward Stakes. In these races, the burnished chestnut won by 7, 5¼ and 10¼ lengths, respectively, in strong final times. His blowout victories coupled with Arrogate’s shocking defeats at Del Mar, led people to believe what was unthinkable after the Dubai World Cup, that Gun Runner was now the best horse in training in the U. S.

All signs pointed to a memorable renewal of the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Arrogate, who had become an enigma, was favored at post time, although there were opinions that ranged from “back in top form” to “a shell of his old self” in terms of how he would fare in the race. His principal opposition was Gun Runner. The questions surrounding the striking chestnut was his 0 for 3 record at the Classic’s 1¼ mile distance and his lack of familiarity with the Del Mar surface condition. Bob Baffert was by no means single handed in the Classic as he saddled Collected and three-year-old West Coast who had scored impressive victories in the Travers Stakes (just as Arrogate accomplished last year) and the Pennsylvania Derby. To add an international flavor to the race, the English and Irish Guineas winner, Churchill, was entered but was given a difficult task in making his initial dirt start.

For Arrogate things went awry quickly as he ducked in from his no. 1 post and had to be steadied near the rear of the field. Jockey Florent Geroux took the same approach he used during Gun Runner’s winning streak in that he would let his mount run freely and see if anyone could out sprint them. By the stands the first time, Gun Runner had a narrow lead over Collected with Churchill saving ground in third positon and West Coast to his outside. Down the backstretch, Gun Runner was a ½ length in front of Collected, setting fast fractions with West Coast and Churchill a few lengths behind. Mike Smith had Arrogate settled between horses in eighth place, hoping for a Dubai-like rally. As they headed around the far turn, the two leaders separated themselves from the rest of the field as the Classic turned into a match race. At the top of the stretch, it appeared that Collected had a slight advantage, but when Geroux roused Gun Runner, he slowly edged away. At the finish, Gun Runner was 2¼ lengths in front of Collected who held second by 1¼ lengths over West Coast. Arrogate, who made a tepid move in the stretch, finished in a dead heat for fifth place.

The Classic was the final start for Arrogate as he began stud at Juddmonte Farms in 2018. He retired with an ambiguous legacy. Until the Travers Stakes of 2016, he was a promising, but undistinguished runner. Then from August 2016 till March 2017, his performances ranked with the best of modern runners. However, his last three starts, all at Del Mar, brought into question his durability and consistency. His career total of 7 wins from 11 starts and prize money of over $17 million currently place Arrogate at the top of North American based runners in earnings.

The final determination on Arrogate’s legacy will be the offspring produced from his short stud career. The great European racehorse Dubai Millennium died after only one year at stud. But in that singular crop, he sired Dubawi who was an Irish classic winner and is now a world class stallion. Perhaps the accomplishments of the sons and daughters of Arrogate will put to rest to riddle of assessing their sire’s greatness.